- The US Federal Reserve will give us a new interest decision today And indicate comments on how it sees the economy. The Israel Iran War enters its sixth day. And yet the markets are somehow everything about President Trump.
The Fed will probably keep interest rates today. The CME FEDWATCH Market has evaluated that with a value of 99.9% (!). Usually, investors would spend the rest of the day to analyze the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, precisely Comments For changes in the sound and the clues as to when the Fed can change the interest next.
But whatever Powell says could certainly be overshadowed by Trump, who will undoubtedly complain that Powell has not reduced interest rates this afternoon.
“US President Trump supports interest rate cuts, but this is a significantly minor perspective. The trade tax increase is great, and the Fed wants to have a greater certainty about its effects before changing politics,” UBS -Analyst Paul Donovan told customers this morning.
Although today’s Fed decision has been the most predictable for years, the VIX volatility index (often referred to as “Fear Index”) is increased today. It rose by almost 9% this morning – and the global stock markets are everywhere: the wide European market had dropped in early trade, but the British market had expired. Japan was up, but Hong Kong was below.
Shares just don’t know where to go.
Why?
Again Trump.
In the past 24 hours he threatens to intervene militarily in Iran:
“We now have complete and complete control over the sky above Iran. Iran had good Sky trackers and other defensive devices and much of it, but it is not compared to the American made, designed and produced” things “. Nobody does it better than the good old USA,” he wrote about the social truth. “We know exactly where the so-called” top leader “is hiding. He is an easy goal, but there is safe-we will not take it out! At least for the time being. But we don’t want rockets to be shot at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is thin. Thanks to their attention for this matter!” Then he added: “Unconditional handover!”
As a result, the oil prices have moved. A month ago, a barrel of WTI raw oil cost 62 US dollars and changes. Today it is about $ 74.
In this light, the sudden increase in volatility is no surprise.
However, Donovan believes that the markets have more impaired the president’s interventions.
“Trump’s social media contributions have proposed that hostility to Iran has been reinforced, which increases the possibility of the (presumably) Iranian nuclear facilities in the USA. The markets are still inclined to consider this as a local conflict with limited global economic consequences,” he said.
Here is a snapshot of the campaign in front of the opening bell in New York:
- S&P 500 Futures This morning rose by 0.21%, although the index itself fell by 0.84% yesterday and ends below 6,000 at 5,982.72.
- The Vix The volatility index rose by almost 9%this morning.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 had increased by 0.9%.
- China SSE Composed Was flat.
- The Stoxx Europe 600 Was flat in early trade.
- The British FTSE 100 had increased by 0.2% in early trade.
- Hong Kongs Hang Seng had dropped by more than 1%.
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