The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, composed of 12 officials, plans to announce its interest rate decision at 18:00 on Wednesday, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference chair after half an hour.
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that despite President Donald Trump’s repeated demands on lower borrowing costs, central banks may once again keep the base and keep interest rates unchanged.
Therefore, interest rate decisions are a foregone conclusion, and crypto traders may focus on the interest rate dot chart, a graphical representation that records every Fed official’s forecast of interest rates.
“Rate is expected to remain on hold, and traders focus on the dot chart: fewer than two expected cuts will make that point change Higher longer Narrative; A dirty surprise will lighten the dollar and may cancel bids for cryptocurrencies. Before that, patience ruled,” said XBTO, a crypto trading and marketing company.
One plot at Eagle Point shows a lower reduction rate and may put pressure on Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market. BTC rally has stalled by $100,000, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased inflation uncertainty dominated by the trade war.
“During 2025, expectations for rate cuts have already decided sharply, from an initial 100 basis points to just 50 basis points currently. This revision is driven by a resilient labor market and inflation that, while modernized, remains above the 2% target. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could further reduce anticipated cuts to just 25 basis points,” Matteo Greco, senior analyst at Fineqi, said in an email.
While Hodge’s Fed may breed downward volatility in Bitcoin, it could increase U.S. fiscal conditions, which intensify U.S. debt service expenses, thereby exacerbating. Strengthen long-term appeals Assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
