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The British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starrer was forced to make several concessions about his controversial welfare reforms in order to make a big uprising from Labor MP.
But the long -term question of the state can provide the British balloon welfare bill with the number of disability benefits will increase significantly over the next 10 years.
How big is the problem?
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Institute is expected to be expected by 2029-30 to 2029-30 £ 66 billion GBP.
These costs have increased exponentially since the pandemic, with 16 billion GBP risen between 2019 and the previous year.
Without reforms, the Think tank estimates can be expected after the end of the parliament.
At the same time, the office for national statistics estimates that Great Britain has 2.8 million people with a long -term state of health who prevents them from working.
The changes to the welfare bill should save almost 5.5 billion GBP by 2029-30, but the concessions on Friday ultimately shaved 3 billion GBP from this sum.
What has rigiders admitted?
In March, rigid plans revealed the authorization for disability advantages that are called “personal independence payments”.
On Friday, the government said that it would not implement any stricter evaluation rules for current applicants, only applicants from November 2026.
This is an essential concession that leads to an estimated 370,000 additional people who receive the advantage, which, according to IFS, receives GBP in 2029-30 £ £ 1.9 billion in 2029-30.
An income shock for every household that relies on the benefit will be avoided, but can be seen as unfair to the equally deserved applicants who become sick after the delivery date. Activists accused the ministers on Friday that they had created a two -stage system.
The government had also undertaken to have paid the health element of the universal loan bis 2029-30 to the applicants evaluated as a sick person.
MPS has now been announced that this is now being paid for in accordance with inflation for existing applicants. The payment is halved and then frozen for new applicants.
Concessions have now also been made to tighten the criteria for PIP.
The ministers had said that from November 2026 the applicants would have to achieve at least four points in at least one category of necessity in order to obtain any PIP rate. MPS was announced that this is now subject to a review.
Sharmer has also brought up a £ 1 billion package for employment support for this year to convince the MPs to support the welfare reforms.
What happens next?
The U -turn of this week means that, according to Tom Waters, Associate Director at The IFS, the government “now only makes a small dent” in its welfare bill.
“The package, even when it was a few days ago, only slowed down, did not stop and certainly not the other way around, these trends in the editions”.
He added: “Of course, none of the available options is easy here. In the next few years, very large savings would be achieved, very large sums of a large number of people, often in a vulnerable situation, would be due to a relatively short period of time.”
In view of the concessions to the current applicants, experts point out that the government has still managed to at least start in the future welfare laws.
“The concessions they made today do not change long -term politics, said Mike Brewer, deputy managing director and chief economist at the think tank of the Resolution Foundation.” At some point everyone will be a new applicant. . . They only repair it a little slower than when the Green Paper was first released. “
He added that the most important long -term change that will not take place in the invoice of the next week would redesign the authorization test for PIP. “The measures in the next week will slow down the growth of expenses for disability advantages, but the redesign of the test could have a much greater influence.”
