When the Supreme Leader appears, he will lead Iran to change

After spending nearly two weeks in a secret bunker in Iran during the war with Israel, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, may want to take advantage of the ceasefire to take risks.

He is believed to have been sealed for fear of being assassinated by Israel. Even the senior government official obviously did not have contact with him.

Although U.S. President Donald Trump and Qatar (Emir) have contributed to a fragile ceasefire, he will be cautious. President Trump reportedly told Israel not to kill Iran’s supreme leader, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not rule it out.

When-or indeed-he does hiding, he will see the landscape of death and destruction. There is no doubt that he will still appear on national television, claiming to win in the conflict. He will plan to restore his image. But he will face a new reality – even a new era.

The war has greatly weakened the country, and he is alone.

During the war, Israel quickly took control of most of Iran’s airspace and attacked its military infrastructure. The top commander of the Revolutionary Guards and the Army was quickly killed.

The extent of damage caused to the military remains unclear and controversial, but the Army repeatedly exploded, and the Revolutionary Guards’ bases and devices indicate that Iran’s military power has greatly deteriorated. For a long time, militarization has consumed a lot of national resources.

Iran’s known nuclear facilities, which have won nearly two decades and international sanctions, estimated cost of hundreds of billions of dollars, have now damaged hundreds of millions of dollars from air strikes, although it is difficult to assess the range. What is all this for, many people are asking.

Many Iranians will hold Ayatollah Khamenei, who first became leader in 1989, responsible for colliding rule with Israel and the United States, ultimately causing great destruction to his country and people.

They will blame him for pursuing ideological goals that undermine Israel – many Iranians do not support this. They will blame him for what he thinks he is stupid – he believes that achieving nuclear status will make his regime invincible. Sanctions weakened Iran’s economy, reducing the highest oil exporter to the shadow of its former self’s poverty.

“It’s hard to estimate how long the Iranian regime can survive under such heavy pressure, but it looks like the beginning of the end,” said Professor Lina Khatib, a visiting scholar at Harvard.

“Ali Khamenei could in the full sense be the last ‘supreme leader’ of the Islamic Republic.”

There is a murmur of objection at the top. At the end of the war, a semi-official Iranian news agency reported that some figures from the former regime had been urging the country’s quieter religious scholars in the holy city of QOM, who were separated from Ayatollah to intervene and bring about leadership changes.

“There will be estimates,” said Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Iran Institute of St. Andrews University.

“It’s obvious that there are great differences in leadership and there are huge dissatisfaction among ordinary people.”

Over the past two weeks, many Iranians have fought the need for hatred of the regime in defending their country. They gather for the state, not out of defending the regime, but rather take care of each other. There are reports of great unity and intimacy.

Towns outside towns and villages in towns opened doors to those who fled the city bombing, and the shop owners charged insufficient basic goods, neighbors knocked on each other’s doors and asked if they needed anything.

But many people also know that Israel may be looking for changes to the Iranian regime. What many Iranians want is a change in the regime. However, they may draw boundaries on regime changes designed and imposed by foreign powers.

In his nearly 40 years of rule, Ayatollah Khamenei, one of the world’s longest dictators, has weakened any opposition in the country. Opposition political leaders were either jailed or fled the country. Foreign opposition figures are unable to formulate positions with opposing regimes.

If the opportunity arises, any appearance they are ineffective in building an organization that can take over at home.

During the two weeks of the war, when the possibility of a war collapse was possible, and if the war was unremittingly carried out, many believed that the possible situation on the next day was not the opposition’s takeover, but the country was in chaos and illegal acts.

Professor Hatib said: “The Iranian regime is unlikely to overthrow through domestic opposition. The regime remains strong at home and will increase domestic oppression to suppress dissent.”

Iranians are now worried about the regime’s further efforts. At least six people have been executed in the past two weeks since the war with Israel began. Authorities say they have arrested about 700 people.

An Iranian woman told the BBC Persian that she was worried about more than the death and destruction of the war, a wounded and humiliated regime that was angry with her own people.

“If the regime fails to provide basic goods and services, then anger and frustration will grow.” Professor Ansari said.

“I think it’s a phased process. I don’t think it’s necessarily something that has to be rooted in the popular sense until it’s long after the explosion is over.”

Few people in Iran think Monday’s ceasefire will continue – many believe that Israel now has a completely superior and unfinished in the sky.

One thing that seems to have escaped destruction is the Iranian ballistic missile island, which is hard to find in tunnels under mountains across the country.

Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said Israel launched an opening attack on Iran, knowing that “Iran has about 2,500 surface-to-surface missiles.” The missiles launched by Iran have caused considerable death and destruction in Israel.

Israel will worry that the remaining 1,500 remain on the Iranian side.

Tel Aviv, Washington and other Western and regional capitals also have a serious concern, and Iran may still be rushing to build nuclear bombs, which it continues to deny.

While Iran’s nuclear facilities are almost certainly restored and may have made useless in Israel and the United States bombings, Iran says it has shifted its highly abundant uranium reserves to a secure secret place.

According to experts, the storage of this uranium is 60%, which is a relatively easy step if enriched to 90%, enough to hold about 9 bombs. Before the war began, Iran announced that it had established another new secret facility for abundance, which is about to be available soon.

The Iranian parliament has voted to significantly reduce cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations Atomic Observation Agency. This still needs ratification, but if it passes through Iran will be one step away from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Northern Convention Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) – as hardliners supporting the top leaders pushing Iran to seek bombs.

Ayatollah Khamenei may now believe that his regime has survived. But at 86, he also knew that his days might have been numbered and he might want to transition to another senior pastor or even a leadership committee through orderly power to ensure the continuity of the regime.

In any case, the remaining Supreme Commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, loyal to the supreme leader, may be seeking to play their strength from behind.

Top Image Source: Pacific Media via Getty

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