Key points:
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Bitcoin’s price stays within a certain range, with an overhead resistance of $106,000, continuing to hinder the rally of more than $112,000.
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Traders are in a wait due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin (BTC) It seems that the Bulls have been suspended, and over the past five weeks, the price has consolidated the range of about $10,000, because All-time high of about $112,000 Still a stubborn obstacle.
Let’s look at some of the reasons why Bitcoin prices are still stuck.
Bitcoin Price amidst the Dilemma of Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical instability In the Middle East, including the recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, creates a risk-averse environment for investors. Traditional Haven Assets Just like gold and US Treasury bonds Gold prices approach historical highs Earlier this week.
On the other hand, risky assets such as Bitcoin (Bitcoin) reduce demand, and BTC drops by 3.6% because Israel’s first attack on Iran last week.
Iran’s cryptocurrency exchange so the $81 million attack was added by pro-Israeli hacker groups, which added to the headwind. This politically motivated attack highlights the potential vulnerability of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the geopolitical network Walfa.
Although Bitcoin is often touted as “digital gold”, Related to risky assets Like stocks, they often perform poorly during geopolitical crises. This macro background kills Bitcoin’s ability to gather to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin cools because the price of feeding remains unchanged
The U.S. Federal Open Market Commission (FOMC) decision on June 18 to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% alleviated the bullish momentum in Bitcoin. The Fed’s cautious stance is driven by ongoing inflation (core PCE is 2.8%) and is concerned Price pressure caused by tariffs Under President Donald Trump’s policies, Reduce expectations Reduce the rate for 2025.
🇺🇸Update: Fed Chairman Powell said the inflation effect may take time to assess and expect a meaningful rise in the coming months. pic.twitter.com/qoeptqb1sd
– Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) June 18, 2025
FOMC’s “dot map” is updated now project According to CME Group’s “Each September, Market” price is only 25 25 base points in 2025, compared with the previous four, the market price is only 58.4% in September. FedWatch Tools.
This restrictive monetary policy strengthens the dollar, forcing risky assets like Bitcoin to put pressure on. Commentators say that the Fed’s struggle against inflation is extraordinary in light of geopolitical tensions.
Related: Bitcoin supply squeeze intensifies as ‘old’ holders erode newly mined BTC
“This is not a normal inflationary struggle,” said Singapore-based cryptocurrency company QCP Capital in a June 18-based telegram note.
“Our basic case is that the Fed may adopt a more cautious tone in September, which could indicate that a single tax rate in 2025 is the opposite of market pricing,” the company explained.
“Such revisions could be withdrawn as liquidity expectations are included in Bitcoin and broader digital assets, including Bitcoin and broader digital assets.”
Key trendlines reduce BTC prices
The price of Bitcoin is trapped below the simple moving average (SMA) of 100 cycles at $106,000, the 50 SMA is $106,040, and the 200 SMA is $106,400, which has obvious resistance as shown in the figure below.
Since June 17, this fusion has compressed price action to a narrow range of between $103,600 and $105,500, repeatedly moving average Refusing to push $106,000 attempt.
COINTELEGRAPH Report A breakout above the moving average can increase BTC/USD to an all-time high of $112,000.
Relative strength index, or RSIapproaching the 46th midline, indicates market hesitation, while exchanges such as Binance have lower trading volumes, underscoring the lack of belief.
Additionally, the looming bearish cross signal of 50-cycle SMA below 100-cycle SMA weakens short-term momentum over a four-hour timeframe.
This technical setup could fix it by preventing Bitcoin from gaining higher momentum and challenging $112,000.
However, in the short term, BTC prices may See a brief squeeze Favorable conditions from the derivatives market.
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trading move involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
