Why Trump-Putin

The Ukrainian war was triggered by a full-scale invasion in Russia in February 2022, showing no signs of weakening.

In eastern Ukraine, Russia continues to move forward in grinding and bleeding progress. The deadly air strikes occur every night across the country, while Russia’s refineries and energy facilities are regularly attacked by Kiev drones.

Against this backdrop, the Kremlin confirmed a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and will be held soon. “I’m here to end (the war),” the U.S. leader said Wednesday.

Three rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine between May and July have failed to bring both sides closer to peace, and Trump may want to take the situation into his own hands, which could eventually lead to a ceasefire.

But the gap between Kiev and Moscow is so large that even the negotiations introduced by Trump could make the bridge difficult.

Moscow outlines the biggest requirement for a “final settlement” of the conflict in a memorandum submitted by Russia to the Ukrainians. These include recognition of Russia’s Russian sovereignty over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Helsen, and Ukraine’s agreement to non-military, neutral, foreign military participation and new elections.

“Russia can structure this in more than a dozen different ways, giving the impression that Moscow is willing to accept concessions and serious negotiations,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political analyst. “But the core status remains the same: Russia wants Kiev to surrender.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Washington had a better understanding of the conditions for Russia to prepare to end the war after Putin and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met.

We don’t know if these conditions have changed. But, only last week, Putin (probably a reference memorandum) said Russia had known its targets in June and that those goals remained the same.

So, despite the Kremlin agreeing to attend the Trump-Pudin meeting, there is no reason to believe that Moscow is ready for its tough prerequisites.

So, why did Putin agree to the conversation at this stage?

One possibility is that it wants to have a conversation to resist Trump threatens to impose secondary sanctions on Moscow’s trading partners Friday. The Kremlin may also feel that it can convince Trump to end the war’s merits.

At the beginning of his second term, Trump seemed more consistent than Russia than Ukraine, labeled Zelensky as a “dictator” and suggested he should be held accountable for the war with Russia.

Since then, he has shown his impatientness with Putin – “He’s just poaching me,” but he said in April – Trump also refused to say whether he felt that the Russian leader had been lying because he was ready to move towards a ceasefire.

Whether due to personal affinity or a friendly worldview, Trump has been reluctant to condemn Putin’s actions completely.

When the two met in Helsinki in 2018 – when Trump served as president in his first term – Shocked to see Trump’s side with the Kremlin in the 2016 U.S. election And take responsibility for the tense state of U.S.-Russia relations.

It may be partly to resist the possibility that Trump is swung by Putin, that is, Kiev wants to participate in any ceasefire negotiations.

Trump suggested holding the triangle with Putin and Zelensky through his envoy Steve Witkoff. However, the Russian president has made these suggestions, saying the conditions for meetings are still far away.

Now, some in Ukraine are concerned that the Trump-Pudin meeting could lead the U.S. president to succumb to Putin’s demands.

Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko said the request for Ukraine’s territorial concessions would be put forward, while from the negotiating table it was not “very dangerous” to Kiev.

“Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the Russian side to take the same bold approach,” Zelensky said on Thursday.

But the gap between Russia and Ukraine remains.

If the Kremlin finally agrees to the trilateral meeting, Moscow’s demand for a ceasefire proves so tricky that it is unclear what makes Zelensky and Putin face to face.