The flags of the EU (L) and China stood side by side in Berlin, Germany on June 20, 2023.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Analysts say China and the EU are unlikely to become allies anytime soon, even if U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff The worsening relationship between the world’s largest economy and transatlantic allies and Beijing.
“I can’t see solidarity between the EU and China and the United States,” said Max Bergmann, director of the European, Russian and Eurasian programs at the Center for European, Russian and International Studies (CSIS).
He explained that on a geopolitical level, both powers may be open, but economic conflicts and existing issues related to trade and competition are a major obstacle.
“Because both are export-driven economies, economic consistency between the EU and China is limited and therefore is a fierce competitor, especially in the automotive and clean technology sectors,” Bergman noted.
“I think both sides will be interested, but there are deep restrictions on both. Unless China is willing to make some big concessions, it will be hard for me to see the EU unite behind a deeper engagement strategy.”
EU – China’s tensions
The relationship between the EU and China is poor. Although China is one of the EU’s largest trading partners, in the United States, the economic relationship between the two is also historically characterized by investigations and trade-related tit tat measures.
The EU has long claimed that Beijing provides key sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries, steel and aluminum that are harmful to global markets and competitiveness. As a result, last year, the EU hit China with tariffs on electric vehicles.
In what is believed to be retaliatory, Beijing then pushed the anti-tilt probe toward exports of pork and brandy, as well as a counter-subsidy investigation into EU dairy products.
Teneo Managing Director Carsten Nickel told CNBC that not only trade has caused tensions in EU-China relations.
He added that there is a “basic difference” between the two, no matter what happens in the United States”
“This is related to the issue of overcapacity in China. It is related to ongoing doubts in the European Parliament, especially concerns about the human rights situation, which is related to support for China’s support for Russia and Ukraine,” he explained.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia, also pointed out that Europe has a “deep” distrust of China in areas such as intellectual property and technical surveillance and industrial policy.
“This won’t go away as the United States becomes an opponent,” he told CNBC.
Try in combination
Analysts suggest that China can try to take advantage of the opportunity to loosen EU relations and try to establish closer ties with the EU.
“China will especially see an opportunity to break the transatlantic alliance and bring Europe closer,” said CSIS’s Bergmann.
On the other hand, some Europeans might imagine “a hedge between the United States and China, perhaps allowing China to reduce support for Russia’s defense industry and open up economically.”
China and the EU appear to have been closed recently.
Just Thursday, the two were reportedly planning to consider setting up The lowest price for electric vehicles made in China Replace EU tariffs. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez On Friday, he met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing and then called for a more balanced relationship. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Also visited Europe Earlier this year, close ties and deeper collaboration were advocated.
Earlier this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang spoke on the phone – although the EU head “stressed China’s key role in resolving possible trade transfers arising from tariffs” and urged Beijing to negotiate a solution to the issues arising from tariffs, which is a problem, Read out The European Commission recommends.
Teneo’s Nickel points out that the language used by phones around Europe seems to be “soft” than in the past.
Change?
Ultimately, “ultimately, the focus is on managing this very challenging situation in the global economy,” Nick said.
“I think it’s obvious, and that doesn’t mean that the basic challenges in Europe and China have disappeared overnight,” he added.
Nick believes that the U.S. tariff action may even make things more difficult between China and the EU, as they may worsen existing problems such as excessive Chinese exports.
Emre Peker and Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia responded to the idea in Thursday’s notes.
“As the U.S.-China tariff struggle escalates, trade transfers will prompt the European Commission to take quick safeguards to prevent China and other countries from dumping their goods on the EU market,” they said.
“Trump’s tariffs will force Brussels to strengthen its trade stance on Beijing, beyond the current economic imbalance with China threatening efforts to threaten European industries,” Eurasia analysts said.
Meanwhile, European policymakers will use “soft remarks” to China to avoid sparking a trade war in both ways. “But it is extremely unlikely to translate into a collaboration between Brussels-Biyan and Washington,” they concluded.
