According to Coindesk Research’s technical analysis model, Bitcoin soared to July 9, up 0.8% in the first 24 hours.
In the Truth Social Job at 10:00 am ET, Trump announced that the U.S. federal funding rate is “at least 3 points too high”, referring to 300 basis points (3%) cut. He argued that delaying such a move would burden $360 billion in refinancing costs per year. Within 30 minutes, BTC began to rise steadily as traders seemed to price in the short-term effects of this huge policy shift, including the potential for new liquidity and risk forces.
comprehensive Thread on xMacro analysts provided a detailed breakdown of Trump’s claims in Kobeissi’s letter. According to their analysis, total interest payments in the U.S. have reached $1.2 trillion in the past 12 months, equivalent to $3.3 billion per day.
They pointed out that while Trump’s math assumes savings of $360 billion per percentage in $36 trillion in Treasury bonds, he only openly holds about $29 trillion and will be affected by interest rate changes. Under more realistic assumptions, they estimate that the full set of cuts of 300 basis points could gradually reduce interest expenses in the first year by about $174 billion, which could total $2.5 trillion in five years if 20% of the debt is fixed.
Despite these potential savings, the report warns that the broader economic consequences of a 3% cut will be historic. Even during the 2008 crisis or the emergency migration in March 2020, no Fed in modern history has slowed more than 100 basis points. Implementing 300 basis points outside of the recession, an economy that grows 3.8% annually will be unprecedented.
Kobeissi’s letter warns that such a move could end inflation above 5%, which would lead to a sharp drop in the dollar (possibly more than 10%) and lead to a rise in home prices due to a sharp drop in mortgage rates. Asset markets are likely to rally in the short term, with gold expected to reach $5,000 and oil above $80 a barrel, while the S&P 500 violated 7,000. However, they stress that the long-term consequences will be unstable without significantly reducing U.S. government spending.
For Bitcoin, the impact is obvious: a sudden drop in interest rates will be seen as a monetary stimulus, which may accelerate capital inflows into hard assets, as well as alternative storage for value like BTC. While analysts continue to debate the possibility of such cuts, the direct response from the market suggests that investors are positioning upside risks.
Technical analysis highlight
- BTC prices rose sharply within 30 minutes of Trump’s social position at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- Earlier in the day, the merger continued, but after Trump’s evaluation, purchases increased significantly.
- The resistance tested for the price is close to $109,761, with the higher lows forming at a price above $108,500, indicating a bullish structure.
- In this cycle, the Bollinger’s band compressed to its tightest level, historically an unanswered signal.
- The institutional accumulation is still visible in the volume cluster near the support area, about $108,500-$108,600.
Disclaimer: Part of this article was generated with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and compliance Our standards. For more information, see Coindesk’s complete AI policy.
