Annoy the USA and China
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China and the US risk of extending a full-grown trade war, unless the two largest economies can come into force to the dispute over Chinese tariffs at $ 14 billion in American exports on Monday.
President Donald Trump last week revealed an additional 10 percent tariff In Chinese goods to force Beijing to do more to combat fentanyl-related exports to the USA and Mexico and threaten more when China returns.
When the US obligations became effective three days later, Beijing struck back immediatelyAnnouncement of an additional 10 to 15 percent tasks on US energy exports and agricultural devices. China’s duties will come into force on Monday.
“This could only be the beginning of this phase of the phase Trading war“, Said Zhang Yanshen, an expert at the China Center for International Economic Exchange.” This could be a very, very bad situation. “
Some analysts had expected that the United States and China would have talks about the emigration of larger merchants. Trump first said he expected to speak to President Xi Jinping, but after China had retreated, he said that he was in “No Rush” and the tariffs were an “opening salvo” with “very extensive” measures.
When asked whether the Trump team with China has also teamed up with Canada and Mexico, which were exposed to higher tariffs in front of Trump Gave them a one -month appearance for tariffsAn official of the White House said that the USA was “constantly in contact with our colleagues, both in Beijing and here in Washington”.
A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said that there was “no new development” since China announced retaliation duties.
Experts in Beijing said that Trump’s shock tactics who wanted to force XI to quickly achieve a deal could have backfired. The US President only provided two days between the announcement and the implementation of the tariffs – a timeline that was probably unacceptable for XI.
“China doesn’t want such a deal,” said Ma Wei, a researcher at the Cass Institute of American Studies in the Chinese government. “You have to have the same conversations and an equal agreement, not one in which you first put a high tariff on me, and then you say we have to complete a deal.”
Ma said the US tactic had a Chinese phrase. “Cheng Xia Zhi Meng ” – Dealing with her enemy under compulsion when it is at your castle gates.
Analysts, however, found that the limited extent of the retaliation of China – which contained Antitrust law examinations In Google and Nvidia, but a closer range of goods than the US taxes proposed – suggested space for negotiations.
Trump administration officers emphasized that the US president wanted China to flow from Fentanyl, a deadly opioid that has become the leading American murderer between the ages of 18 and 45.
However, experts in Beijing said that the conversations could be because Trump called for a collaboration on other fronts, e.g. It is the American buyer..
“Fentanyl is a problem that can easily be addressed-China has already worked with the US team,” said John Gong, Professor at the University of International Business and Economics. “So Trump probably wants a little more about which they can’t talk publicly about.”
Trump said on Friday on Friday that he would reveal “mutual tariffs” in countries next week, but gave no information about which nations would be attacked. The White House in late Friday also stopped temporarily Minimis exceptions For tariffs for inexpensive shipments from China that made companies like Shein and Temu available.
Wendy Cutler, a trading expert and Vice President of Asia Society Policy Institute, said that China would play a longer game in contrast to Canada and Mexico.
“Beijing will most likely pursue a waiting-and-lake base before it is considering commitment, including further security, whether it will continue to be influenced by additional mutual, sectoral or universal tariffs,” said Cutler.
Chinese experts said it would be difficult for Beijing to achieve a “big bargain” for a short period of time, in particular on thorny topics such as the war in Ukraine, about which the USA accused China of helping Russia.
Several experts in a forum of the University of California San Diego and the Council on Foreign Relations Forum in China said that Beijing was more concerned about US Tech export controls than about the tariffs.
China is too better prepared This time to tolerate tariffs, said Gong. Exports to the USA accounted for 15 percent of the total Chinese trade last year, a lower share than in the past.
“The position of the Chinese government for this tariff could be:” So be it, “said Gong.” The majority of it is paid by American consumers anyway, and many Chinese companies have already postponed part of their business. No more fatal weapon as perceived by Washington.
However, some economists believe that the full power of Trump’s threatened tariffs – like the 60 percent levy during the presidential campaign – would demand a high tribute of China’s economy.
Hui Shan, Chef -China economist at Goldman Sachs, estimated that every increase in US tariffs would knock on China’s GDP growth by 20 percentage points.
Beijing could compensate for part of this blow With currency depreciationConsumer Stimulus packages and other measures, but it would probably still absorb about 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth, she said.